摘   要：通过运用灰色理论，建立满足精度要求的GM(1,1)模型，预测冻融环境中PVA-FRCC使用寿命。结果表明： GM(1,1)模型的方差比C<0.35，小误差概率P>0.95，精度良好，可用于PVA-FRCC的寿命预测与分析；掺入PVA纤维可延缓PVA-FRCC相对动弹性模量的下降趋势，PVA纤维掺量为1%的PVA-FRCC相对动弹性模量下降曲线最平缓；在相对气温很低的长春，PVA纤维体积掺量为1%的PVA-FRCC抗冻使用寿命可达143年。

Abstract: Grey model GM(1,1) was established to predict service life of polyvinyl alcohol fiber reinforced cementitious composites (PVA-FRCC) under the condition of freeze-thaw cycle. The research results show that the variance (C) of GM(1,1) is less than 0.35 and the small error possibility (P) is more than 0.95. So precision of GM (1, 1) is excellent and it can be used to predict and analyze the service life of PVA-FRCC. Relative dynamic elastic modulus of PVA-FRCC decreased slower by adding PVA fiber in it. The degradation curve of relative dynamic elastic modulus is most smooth and the service life is longest when PVA fiber content is 1%, even in Changchun with lower temperature, the service life of PVA-FRCC can reach up to 143 years.